Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 34 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 34 · SEA → JFK

departs 2:03 PM PT · arrives 10:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

JFK (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 34 · SEA → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?