Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 393 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 393 · SJC → PDX

departs 2:13 PM PT · arrives 4:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SJC are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ This flight has been late 7% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 393 · SJC → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?