Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 447 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 447 · PDX → BOI

departs 9:38 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOI?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into BOI at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

BOI (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 447 · PDX → BOI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOI?