AS 470 · LAX → OGG

departs 9:52 AM PT · arrives 12:57 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 470 · LAX → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?