Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 483 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 483 · SAN → OGG

departs 6:55 PM PT · arrives 9:55 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 483 · SAN → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?