Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 487 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 487 · SEA → LAX

departs 11:15 AM PT · arrives 2:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 487 · SEA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?