Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 500 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 500 · IND → SEA

departs 6:10 PM ET · arrives 7:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from IND are often late

↓ IND usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 500 · IND → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?