Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 517 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 517 · FLL → SEA

departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 517 · FLL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?