Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 534 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 534 · PDX → ONT

departs 9:26 PM PT · arrives 12:02 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into ONT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

ONT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 534 · PDX → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?