Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 552 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 552 · SEA → LAS

departs 3:31 PM PT · arrives 6:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±6 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 552 · SEA → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?