Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 566 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 566 · SAN → GEG

departs 7:56 PM PT · arrives 10:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GEG?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GEG (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 566 · SAN → GEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to GEG?