Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 579 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 579 · ORD → SEA

departs 7:15 PM CT · arrives 9:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ORD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 579 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?