Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 580 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 580 · SFO → SEA

departs 10:58 AM PT · arrives 12:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 580 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?