Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 583 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 583 · ORD → SEA

departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 11:19 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 583 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?