Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 584 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 584 · SEA → ANC

departs 9:31 AM PT · arrives 12:07 PM AKT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ANC that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

ANC (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 584 · SEA → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?