Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 586 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 586 · FAI → ANC

departs 9:44 AM AKT · arrives 10:57 AM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at FAI that day

↑ Gusts to 37 kt forecast at ANC that day

↓ FAI usually runs smoothly

↓ 9am departures from FAI are usually not late

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

ANC (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 586 · FAI → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?