Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 592 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 592 · SEA → ONT

departs 3:26 PM PT · arrives 6:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

ONT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 592 · SEA → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?