Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 593 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 593 · ANC → PDX

departs 1:39 AM AKT · arrives 6:24 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ This flight has been late 9% of the time recently

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.02 in

PDX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 593 · ANC → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?