Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 604 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 604 · SEA → MSO

departs 7:34 PM PT · arrives 10:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at MSO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSO?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSO

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

MSO (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 604 · SEA → MSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSO?