Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 61 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 61 · YAK → CDV

departs 11:21 AM AKDT · arrives 12:13 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at CDV more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CDV?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 11am departures from YAK are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into CDV at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

YAK (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

CDV (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,867 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 61 · YAK → CDV

Odds over time

How late will it get to CDV?