Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 635 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 635 · SAN → DEN

departs 2:32 PM PT · arrives 5:47 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 635 · SAN → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?