Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 7004 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 7004 · SIT → JNU

departs 6:26 PM AKDT · arrives 7:18 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at JNU more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JNU?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SIT is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SIT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JNU

Weather at each end

SIT (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JNU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7004 · SIT → JNU

Odds over time

How late will it get to JNU?