Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 720 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 720 · SMF → PDX

departs 6:14 PM PT · arrives 7:54 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from SMF are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 720 · SMF → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?