Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 740 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 740 · SFO → SAN

departs 10:37 AM PT · arrives 12:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 740 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?