Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 770 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 770 · SAN → SFO

departs 10:54 AM PT · arrives 12:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 770 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?