Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 802 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 802 · HNL → LAX

departs 1:10 PM HT · arrives 9:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,467 ft forecast at HNL that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,467 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.10 in

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 802 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?