Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 808 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 808 · HNL → LAS

departs 11:20 PM HT · arrives 8:03 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.08 in

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 808 · HNL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?