Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 827 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 827 · HNL → SAN

departs 7:19 AM HT · arrives 3:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.08 in

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 827 · HNL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?