Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 830 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 830 · HNL → JFK

departs 3:09 PM HT · arrives 6:55 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 1,467 ft forecast at HNL that day

↑ 3pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,467 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.08 in

JFK (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 830 · HNL → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?