Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 866 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 866 · PPG → HNL

departs 11:18 PM SST · arrives 6:06 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ 11pm departures from PPG are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PPG (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 866 · PPG → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?