Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 869 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 869 · LGB → HNL

departs 7:29 AM PT · arrives 10:20 AM HT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at HNL that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 7am departures from LGB are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB

Weather at each end

LGB (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 869 · LGB → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?