Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 899 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 899 · SEA → HNL

departs 12:07 PM PT · arrives 3:08 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at HNL that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

HNL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 899 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?