Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9420 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 9420 · SEA → SAT

departs 9:16 AM PT · arrives 3:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SAT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9420 · SEA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?