Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 953 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 953 · SJC → OGG

departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 9:21 AM HT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2.33333 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ SJC is prone to delays

↓ Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late

↓ 7am departures from SJC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 953 · SJC → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?