Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 981 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

AS 981 · OGG → LAX

departs 12:23 PM HT · arrives 8:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↓ OGG usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.46 in

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 981 · OGG → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?