Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA · FLIGHT AV 215 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AV 215 · SJU → BOG

departs 1:05 PM AT · arrives 3:05 PM -05

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at BOG more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOG?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SJU is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOG

↓ Arrivals into BOG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 215 · SJU → BOG

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOG?