Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

FINNAIR · FLIGHT AY 10 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AY 10 · ORD → HEL

departs 9:48 PM CT · arrives 1:33 PM EET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at HEL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HEL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HEL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HEL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AY 10 · ORD → HEL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HEL?