Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1086
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
B6 1086 · MCO → BUF
departs 2:02 PM ET · arrives 4:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 36%
Sat 10/31 33%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.