Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1528
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
B6 1528 · POP → JFK
departs 3:00 PM AST · arrives 6:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 10/28 25%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 49%
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1 50%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave POP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at POP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
3pm departures from POP are usually not late
Weather at each end
POP (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.