Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
B6 1586 · MCO → BUF
departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 8:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 39%
Sat 10/31 34%
Sun 11/1 44%
Mon 11/2 34%
Tue 11/3 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.