Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1852
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
B6 1852 · CUN → JFK
departs 2:20 PM EST · arrives 7:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Wed 10/28 23%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 50%
Sat 10/31 38%
Sun 11/1 51%
Mon 11/2 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
CUN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CUN (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.