Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 189
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
B6 189 · JFK → SAN
departs 6:14 AM ET · arrives 8:59 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.