Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1901
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
B6 1901 · BUF → JFK
departs 11:27 AM ET · arrives 1:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 46%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at BUF that day
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.