Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 280
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
B6 280 · MBJ → JFK
departs 1:23 PM EST · arrives 6:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/28 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 51%
Sat 10/31 38%
Sun 11/1 51%
Mon 11/2 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
MBJ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MBJ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.