Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
B6 416 · SFO → JFK
departs 2:35 PM PT · arrives 11:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 28%
Sat 10/31 32%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.