Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 433
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
B6 433 · MCO → SJU
departs 5:19 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM AT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sat 10/31 29%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MCO that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at SJU that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.