Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 475
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
B6 475 · JFK → MSY
departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 3:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 46%
Sat 10/31 34%
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from JFK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.