Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
B6 476 · MSY → JFK
departs 4:47 PM CT · arrives 8:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 31%
Sat 10/31 36%
Sun 11/1 43%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,633 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.