Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

BRITISH AIRWAYS · FLIGHT BA 286 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

BA 286 · SFO → LHR

departs 7:48 PM PT · arrives 12:36 PM GMT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at LHR more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LHR?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LHR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BA 286 · SFO → LHR

Odds over time

How late will it get to LHR?