Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

BRITISH AIRWAYS · FLIGHT BA 287 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

BA 287 · LHR → SFO

departs 2:30 PM GMT · arrives 6:15 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BA 287 · LHR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?